Investigation: Toronto Public Health stat for restaurants is wildly misleading

Photo credit: Yonge Street Warehouse.

How a single misleading stat FROM TPH is largely responsible for the CLOSURE OF INDOOR DINING - AND recent downfall of the province's restaurant industry

🕒 16 min read

Premier Doug Ford kept indoor dining going at bars, restaurants, and other food and drink establishments in the province as long as possible, despite mounting pressure from Dr. Eileen de Villa, Toronto Medical Officer of Health, and Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. David Williams.

During a press conference on Monday, he said the “vast majority” of restaurants are following protocols. “These are people that have put their life in these small restaurants and they have put everything they had. … I have to see the evidence before I take someone’s livelihood away from them and shut their lives down. That’s a huge, huge decision that weighs on my shoulders and our team’s shoulders and it’s tough.”

He wanted "hard, hard evidence" before impacting the lives of thousands of workers, saying, "We've put in the protocols to keep these places open. I believe the vast majority of them – out of the 7,600 businesses, even if you have 10 (employees) or less than 10 (employees), I can't put 76,000 people (out of work) and their livelihoods and just shut them down; they're barely hanging on by their finger nails right now."

Despite his efforts, as of today, Saturday October 10, 12:01am, Toronto, Peel Region, and Ottawa move to a modified Stage 2, which includes prohibiting indoor dining for the next 28 day.

How we got here

Last  Friday, Dr. Eileen de Villa, Toronto Medical Officer of Health, sent Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. David Williams, recommendations to significantly reduce the further spread of COVID-19 in Toronto, including ceasing indoor dining at bars and restaurants.

In her letter she notes, “Between September 20 and 26, there were 45 active community outbreaks. Of these outbreaks, about 18 (44%) were in restaurants, bars and entertainment venues. Socializing in bars and restaurants is contributing to significant exposures and outbreaks (e.g. Yonge Street Warehouse created 1,700 exposures, Regulars Bar created 600 exposures).”

That 44 per cent stat has quickly nabbed headlines, blaming the industry as a whole. But upon closer investigation, there are a number of critical factors missing from this figure that didn’t make the news. In fact, it appears the data comes from cases found in only a few large bars/restaurants over the span of a week.

Take a look: 

Timeline

During the time period of September 20 to 26 as outlined above, a number of events occurred:

Friday September 25

De Villa issued orders to three Toronto bars/restaurants to close under Section 22 of the Health Protection and Promotion Act:

Casa Mezcal - 291 King St. W. - Entertainment District
King Taps - 100 King St. W. - Financial District
MARBL - 455 King St. W. - Fashion District

A fourth establishment was “in the process of being served.”

Key factors to note not mentioned in the brief:

1. All three venues are located on King between Bay and Bathurst in the downtown core, not all over the city.
2. All are large capacity venues - King Taps and MARBL both have expansive indoor and outdoor seating, while Casa Mezcal offers patios across three floors.
3. All have a vibrant night life. These are not small independent restaurants that close at 10pm.

The release doesn’t specify the number of people infected across the three establishments like it will in the coming days, but does confirm cases at “more than one of these locations.”

There is no indication as to how long the establishments are to be closed.

Number of establishments - 3
Total confirmed cases – at the very least 2, but likely more (8 in total according to de Villa’s breakdown below)

Saturday September 26

The following day, a news release by Toronto Public Health issued regarding Yonge Street Warehouse at Yonge and Dundas, included the following statement:

“In the last few days, tests have confirmed that seven people linked to this establishment are positive for COVID-19.  Five are employees and two are patrons.”

Those confirmations fall in the window of that damaging 44 per cent stat - September 20 to 26. Yonge Street Warehouse is a large capacity venue that boasts “two floors of madness.”

TPH estimated that approximately 1,700 people may have been at the venue during this time.

Number of Establishments – 1
Total confirmed cases – 7

Sunday September 27

On Sunday September 27, a COVID-19 Notification for King and Bathurst’s spacious Regulars Bar stated “a potential exposure for COVID-19.”

“In the last few days, tests have confirmed that three individuals linked to this establishment are positive for COVID-19. All three individuals are employees of the establishment.”

Those confirmations also occurred during the timeframe of September 20-26. According to their website, Regulars is a bar “inspired by the gambling halls and casinos of the 1920s and Hollywood’s Golden Age.”

TPH estimates approximately 600 people may have been at the venue during this time.

Number of Establishments - 1
Total confirmed cases – 3

Two venues are largely responsible for blame of entire industry

In her letter de Villa wrote, “Socializing in bars and restaurants is contributing to significant exposures and outbreaks (e.g. Yonge Street Warehouse created 1,700 exposures, Regulars Bar created 600 exposures).”

As per her own words above, and my investigation here, these two large capacity venues known for their late night scene, are largely what she based this recommendation on.

The significance of the absence of “about”

In the letter de Villa writes, “about 18 (44%) were in restaurants, bars and entertainment venues,” yet in the news release dated Friday October 2 that most journalists and outlets would have reference, the word “about” is missing: 

“Between September 20 and 26, there were 45 active community outbreaks. Of these outbreaks, 44 per cent were in restaurants, bars and entertainment venues.”

So which is it?

The numbers don’t add up

The confirmed cases outlined above add up to at least 12 of the 18 total cases. But according to de Vila’s letter, it’s not just bars and restaurants responsible for the 44 per cent:

“Between September 20 and 26, there were 45 active community outbreaks. Of these outbreaks, about 18 (44%) were in restaurants, bars and entertainment venues.”

I reached out to Toronto Public Health a number of times to confirm exact numbers and get more detailed information. I was sent only one reply that contained only links to various news releases including the ones referenced here, as well as links to videos of de Villa at briefings. I followed up with more questions again asking for specifics, but at press time had not received any response.

This is where the “about” comes in. “Entertainment venues” was left out of the media attention surrounding the data for the aforementioned week in September, but it’s significant because cases included in the stat didn’t come solely from bars or restaurants. On Thursday TPH clarified that the 44 per cent of outbreaks were as follows:

• 18 at restaurants and bars

• 1 at a nightclub

• 1 at a adult entertainment club

That cases found at a nightclub and strip club were lumped into vital data concerning cases at large Toronto bars/restaurants is outrageous.

This is yet another glaring inaccuracy, jacking up the number of cases at local bars and restaurants and continuing to make the industry appear to blame for the rising numbers.

It turns out this is not the first time TPH has inflated COVID-19 numbers.

One week

This stat was for a one-week period, not a single month or months. Unfortunately, it was a period that included approximately 2,300 exposures from two venues alone, and 18 confirmed cases at five large bars/restaurants in total.

That said, it is not anywhere close to the number of cases found in a single week in other establishments.

Blatant bias against the industry

The hospitality industry continues to get pummelled by TPH and the media for being unsafe, while other sectors are continually overlooked. 

In a letter to Dr. Williams dated Friday October 2, Re: A Need for Enhanced Public Health Measures, De Villa recommended the Province take immediate action to stop the further spread of COVID-19 by “restricting individuals from dining indoors” based on the 44 per cent stat above. 

In that same letter, despite observing “accelerated growth in schools since reopening on September 15: 103 schools with active cases, 68 in the last week (Sept 23-Sept 30),” makes no recommendation for their closure. The letter even includes her advice for the general public: “individuals only leave their homes for essential activities, such as work, education,” as well as “exercise and fitness, healthcare appointments and the purchase of food.”

While indoor dining at bars and restaurants is prohibited for the next 28 days, schools will remain open and the The City will continue to operate the following programs, with capacity restrictions and other health measures in place:

• lane swimming

• fitness centres

• arts and general interest instruction

• After-school Recreation Care

• December camps for children

• drop-in youth programs that do not include sports

• indoor athletic training permits with no game play, including hockey training

• permits for outdoor sports

Not convinced the industry is being vilified? As of October 7, outbreaks at bars and restaurants in Toronto were down to 34 per cent, yet “remain responsible for a significant number of outbreaks.”

“Essential” services

The numbers speak for themselves: Despite “103 schools with active cases, 68 in the last week,” de Villa does not recommend closures, yet 18 cases at 5 large bars/restaurants in a single week and the whole industry is to blame.

This is partly due to the fact that “essential services” are not subject to the same ramifications as public necessities such as restaurants, bars, cafes, bakeries, breweries, and other food and drink establishments.

The Government of Canada’s Guidance on Essential Services and Functions in Canada During the COVID-19 Pandemic includes “Restaurant employees necessary to support take-out and food delivery operations,” right alongside others such as “Educators supporting public and private K-12 schools, colleges, and universities for purposes of facilitating distance learning or performing other essential functions, if operating under guidelines for social distancing,” yet restaurants aren’t deemed essential.

In de Villa’s letter, as well as previous statements from the city and province, absence of certain sectors remain.

Grocery stores, pharmacies and LCBO

The climbing cases of employees testing positive for COVID-19 at Ontario grocery stores, liquor stores, and pharmacies over the past days, weeks, and months does not receive the same censure as the handfuls of cases at local bars and restaurants.

Businesses are not required by law to disclose cases, so if there is confirmed case or outbreak, you may not be informed, while restaurants, bars, and other food and drink establishments have had contact tracing in place for months. 

Companies including Sobey’s, Loblaws (which owns Shoppers Drug Mart) and LCBO are transparent with how many cases they’ve had - while others remain tight-lipped - with some grocery stores and pharmacies are reporting a total of ten or more cases across locations in a single week.

Chain supermarkets, drugstores and liquor shops have on average hundreds more people visiting per day than restaurants and bars, especially smaller, independent ones. Why is the hospitality industry being singled out? These behemoth chains do not share the industry’s razor-thin margins, nor are they on the verge of closure. Not even close. In fact, supermarkets are having a record year, despite the public’s concerns about grocery shopping during the pandemic - and if your own supply of hand sanitizer and soap are any indication, it’s safe to say, so are pharmacies.

Think of the square footage you traverse, the amount of people you come in close contact with, the number of things you touch in these stores. Compare that to a restaurant. While the city’s health unit continues to blast restaurants and bars for being unsafe, perhaps you should be warier of shopping at big box grocers, pharmacies, and liquor stores.

These “essential” services will not be called out, however, for fear of causing widespread panic that you cannot safely shop for your necessities without risk of catching the highly contagious virus, but look at the confirmed cases. Numbers don’t lie.

Damage has been done

Harmful headlines and news items unjustly singling out the restaurant industry based on a single stat that is not only misleading, but incorrect, concerning less than 20 cases at five large capacity establishments in a single week, has helped bring the industry to its knees.

The damage this has done – directly resulting in a four week shut down, instilling fear in the public about dining at restaurants and bars (including patios, takeout, and delivery), causing permanent closures - is irrevocable.

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